Where can Europe get gas from if Russia invades Ukraine?
Many worry that if Russia invaded Ukraine, gas flow to Europe would be disrupted. That is because Europe is heavily dependent on Russia for gas. In fact, Europe relies on Russia for more than 40% of its gas. A third of all gas from Russia to Europe goes through gas pipelines located on the territory of Ukraine.
A scenario in which Russia cuts gas exports to Europe is particularly concerning now as Europe is facing gas shortages and increasing energy prices. The ongoing energy crisis in Europe has never been more serious. Natural gas stockpiles are running very low and almost all European countries are affected.
A report published by the Centre for American progress, an American think tank wrote ‘In a fight over Ukraine, Russia would without a doubt be prepared to cut off gas supplies to Europe in winter. Furthermore, fighting in Ukraine could affect the flow of gas to Europe if pipelines are damaged or supplies are cut. Europe should therefore be taking immediate steps to prepare for a gas shortage this winter.’
But is Europe completely at the mercy of Putin? Or are there other ways for it to get gas?
Alternative sources of gas for Europe
The main possible solution that is being discussed at the moment is Europe getting gas from Qatar, which is one of the largest gas producers in the world. It also dominates exports of liquified natural gas (LNG).
In the past Qatar was supplying parts of Europe with gas but that changed after in 2018 the European Commision launched an antitrust investigation looking at how Qatar was selling long-term contracts to European countries. Now, Qatar is hoping that the investigation will be discontinued.
Another possibility is that Europe would be getting more gas from Libya, which is already supplying gas to some European countries such as Italy. S&P Global reported that ‘Libya’s proved gas reserves are 1.4 Tcm, the fourth-highest in Africa after Nigeria, Algeria and Egypt.’ Hence, should Russia cut gas exports, Europe could turn to Libya for help.
Then, there is a chance that the US would step in and help divert gas from around the world to Europe. In addition to that, the US wants to discourage Russia from cutting gas exports by ‘preparing restrictions on exports to Russia of hi-tech software and hardware made by the US and its allies. Officials said the measures would affect Russian ambitions in the fields of aerospace, defence, lasers and sensitive, maritime technology, artificial intelligence and quantum computers,’ the Guardian reported.
As CNBC reported, ‘Eurasia Group analysts said Europe’s options to mitigate a full supply disruption would consist of asking alternative pipelines such as Algeria, Azerbaijan and Norway to maximize pipeline pressure, a total blowdown of all available gas inventories across the EU, activating any alternative power and heating supplies available and, if necessary, ordering demand curtailments.’ For now, however, these options have not been explored in detail.
Can alternative supplies be enough?
A US official said that ‘to ensure Europe is able to make it through the winter and spring we expect to be prepared to ensure alternative supplies covering a significant majority of the potential shortfall,’
Unfortunately, experts believe that gas flows from other sources will not be enough if gas from Russia stops flowing. Europe will have to change its energy consumption habits and look for ways to consume less gas. Moreover, policies will have to be put in place to control the demand. As for the prices, energy consumers can expect their bills to keep getting higher in the next few months.
Temperatures in Europe are still low as it is the middle of winter season so should the invasion happen in the next few weeks, people could find themselves unable to heat their homes. That already is becoming difficult for some with increasing numbers of families facing fuel poverty.
The energy crisis has not only been affecting energy consumers but also gas and electricity suppliers, many of whom had no choice but to stop trading.
Even though no one knows for sure whether the invasion will happen, Europe has to have a plan and be prepared for it. Otherwise, a large-scale catastrophe might happen, negatively affecting lives of millions of households around the continent.